Oregon vs Iowa State: A Fiesta for The Future
The Fiesta Bowl pits Oregon and Iowa State against each other for the first time in the history of the two programs, but this game ain't about history.
Fiesta Bowls can be fun.
Joey beating up on the Buffs. DAT finishing at the tape. All great stuff.
But that stadium can be treacherous.
Dyer being down/not down. That damn Final Four. All shitty stuff.
Luckily for the most haunted Oregon fans, the past—good or bad—won’t be in charge of anything when the 25th-ranked Ducks takes on 10th-ranked Iowa State in the Playstation Fiesta Bowl.
This one is all about The Future.
Tomorrow will be about reaffirming confidence in your presumptive QB1; reminding the country that you’ll still have the best defense this side of the Mississippi in 2021; and it’s about being “Electric Oregon” on the national stage once again.
The Ducks have a chance to take a crapshoot of a season, and flip it into a handful of trophies. A conference title and a NY6 bowl—that’s a “down year” in Eugene nowadays.
And hell, a down year sounds like a dream when you just stepped out of a generally downer year as a world.
The Dr. Heat Ducks versus a Legit Rushing Attack
In previewing the USC game, I talked about how Andy Avalos needed to get funky with it and finally break out of his stagnant zone schemes.
The Oregon defense—plagued by opt-outs, yes—had been a far cry from its Gang Green 2.0 status up until the second half of the Cal game, but then they finally got creative.
They mixed up their blitz packages, used the Nickel and inside linebackers in far more interesting ways than they had all year, and overall just brought more heat to USC along the line of scrimmage.
To be fair, the Trojans are the worst rushing team in the conference.
The Pac-12 CG performance was a valiant one from KT & Co., but Breece Hall and Iowa State are a whole different beast.
Hall is a 2020 Doak Walker Award finalist, an AP first team All American, and, as I noted in Wednesday’s Round Up:
He’s averaging 130.5(!) yards per game, 5.9 yards per attempt, and has scored at least one touchdown in every game this year for a total of 19.
The Ducks D had looked pretty much middling against all kinds of rushing attacks—good or bad—up until USC. But we have yet to see how Avalos’ Dr. Heat Ducks, in their current form, handle a talent like Hall.*
*Yes, we are pretending like this defense is entirely different than the one Jermar Jefferson bowled over a few weeks ago. They sure as hell don’t look the same.
The front seven controlled the SC game, forced errors, and the secondary made the most of those errors by turning the ball over. That’s the recipe. Just play another incredible game. Pretty simple stuff.
Purdy v. Shough: High School Sweathearts
It’s been said already by all the major media machines, but since you’ll hear it a zillion times on the broadcast tomorrow, I’m contractually obligated to remind you that:
“Tyler Shough and Iowa State’s Brock Purdy are old rivals from their Arizona high school days.”
Purdy’s Perry Pumas got the better of Shough’s Hamilton H*skies more often than not, but apparently there were some serious shootouts.
Anyone who has been reading this newsletter since the preseason knows that I go to bat for Tyler Shough nearly every week, but apparently the tape backs me up on this one—for once.
Addicted to Quack’s Hythloday breaks down UO film (and then translates it to regular folk like me) better than anyone in the business. Here’s what they say about the “Shough Slander” out there:
Presented without comment. Unless you count my “like” on that tweet as a comment.
Purdy has been a bit more efficient (66.4% comp.) than Shough (62.7%) this year—that’s not much of a surprise. Shough has about twenty points on Brock’s passer rating, and averages about ten more yards per game.
Brock’s experience (and knack for beating Oklahoma) is really the only thing that separates the two.
But I don’t think you can look at these two teams and say that the quarterbacks and their arms are going to be far and away the difference makers. It’s all about what they’ll be able to do on the ground.
Shough averages 43.8 rush yards per game to Purdy’s commendable 31.2. However, Tyler has looked his best when he has been able to set the turf on fire. Those first two games saw 85 and 81 yards on the ground from RoboShough, and I think running like that is vital to his ability to manage the game and compound his successes.
Getting Shough confident—while also supplementing the struggling/hobbled Oregon running back room—would be the perfect way for him to finally separate himself from his high school nemesis.
Yes, that means that Tyler needs to make better reads (when there is actually a read to be made), AND Joe Moorhead needs to script some QB draws and speed options to get things rolling early. It’s all about the Big Mo’, Joe.
Play Some of the Oldies
Mycah will be out there again. Sean Dollars looked real good in the Championship Game. And yes, Devon Williams looks to return.
But I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again: your veteran receivers are the number one asset for your “struggling” young quarterback.
Take a couple fade shots to Johnny Johnson on first down, huh? Or find Jaylon crossing over the middle on 3rd & 8—he’s always there.
I talk a lot about momentum and helping this offense help itself. Leaning on and highlighting your savviest, most reliable weapons should be Step One, Two, and Three in that endeavor.
Let’s not forget that JJ3 LOVES to play in his home state of Arizona. He almost singlehandedly lead us back from the dead against ASU last year, and all bets are off now that he’s catching passes from another Zona boy.
Jaylon also missed the Rose Bowl last year under mysterious circumstances, so you can guarantee that he’s hungry to keep up his solid season with some NY6 razzle dazzle of his own.
Redd and JJ3 each need four catches at a MINIMUM—and one of them (Redd) needs to have more.
We don’t need anything otherworldly from either of these two, but if Shough can get ahead of the sticks early in drives by targeting his old heads, he’ll be just productive enough through the air to give us a shot.
They could also both come back next year as some of the most tenured Oregon receivers of all time. So we got that going for us, which is nice.
So, expect the Ducks to make some stops, but also maybe get burned by Breece Hall a time or two. Either way, it can’t get worse than the OSU game, right?
And even when you see Anthony Brown come in on short yardage/fourth down/gadget plays, don’t let that fool you into believing that the staff doesn’t trust Tyler. They’ll both play the roles they are meant to play, and I hope they both find the end zone in hundred different ways.
Sit back, eat some Tostitos (for good measure), and remember that this is basically Game -1 for the 2021-22 season.
Grab your Playstation 5s while you still can, this party is all about the next-generation.
Oregon 38, Iowa State 24
Go Ducks.