We're Baaaack: Fresno State Game Preview

The Oregon Ducks are back in action, and 2021 starts with the not-to-be-overlooked, but also not-to-be-feared, Fresno State Bulldogs.

“It feels like it’s brand new again.”

That’s what Johnny Johnson said earlier this week when he realized how close we were to getting Duck football back.

It feels like the nightmare Fiesta Bowl was forever ago—and the 2020 Rose Bowl might as well have been the 1927 Rose Bowl. But none of that matters anymore because a new season is upon us.

New beginnings. New stories. New heroes. It’s all brand new again.

Big picture, this home opener is about three things: 1) Welcoming fans and a real home atmosphere back to Autzen Stadium, 2) seeing this new Duck team at full speed against competition for the first time all year, and 3) getting everybody ready for next week and Ohio State.

I know we still have to take things one week at a time. But even though Fresno State isn’t bad—and the Ducks don’t want to get caught looking ahead—I won’t pretend that this Saturday is the huge test.

It’s a time to get the jitters out. Get the young guys some reps. And hear the roar of the crowd again.

But we will play the Buckeyes when we play the Buckeyes.

Until then, let’s talk about the Fresno State Bulldogs.

Passes from a Guy that Passed On UDub

Fresno’s quarterback, Jake Haener (#9), is a transfer from Washington, and he was surely instrumental in the Bulldogs’ 45-0 takedown of UConn last week. He showed out as the pure pocket passer that he is, throwing for 331 yds, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a superb 76.9% completion percentage.

While riding the pine in Seattle, Haener was named as Washington’s 2017 Offensive Scout Team Player of the Year. I assume that means that he was very good at preparing UDub for playing Braxton Burmeister, so take that award however you will.

I expect Oregon’s secondary (even though they’ll be without DJ James and Jamal Hill) to be able to significantly stifle Haener’s production—hopefully knocking about 10-15% off of that stellar Week Zero comp. percentage.

But Haener will be throwing to another Washington transfer—6-4 receiver, Ty Jones (#8)— who offers size and experience that will immediately test Mykael Wright and the young Oregon corners in Bridges/Manning. Jones’ fellow receiver, Jalen Cropper (#5), caught an 86-yard TD bomb against UConn, too. So they have some dudes out there, for sure.

While at Washington in 2018, Jones also had himself a 43-yard touchdown against the Ducks, so he knows how to score in Autzen.

Luckily—thanks to one CJ Verdell—he doesn’t know how to win in Autzen.

If Hill and/or James don’t return to the lineup by Week Two in Columbus—even though I think they will—then I think the WR duo of Cropper/Jones will be a very gentle preview of that scary, all-world Buckeye combo of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson.

Running with the “Pride of The Valley”

As much as Haener’s passing attack will be a factor, Fresno State’s best chance at success will surely hang on their run game.

Running back Ronnie Rivers (#20) is the program’s all-time touchdown leader, and he is something of a Fresno legend. He is a career 2,100+ yard rusher coming into this year, and has averaged 5+ yards per carry in both 2018, 2019, and 2020.

He’s 5-9, 195 lbs, so he is not a monster, size-wise, but if there was a weakness in the Oregon defense last year (there were a few), it was absolutely in run-stopping.

Now, I don’t think Tim DeRuyter plans on lining up the defensive line 3 yards off of scrimmage like Avalos tried last year, but we will need to see improved speed and tackling from Oregon’s linebackers, and far more strength and gap-plugging from the middle of the defensive line.

If Popo, Dorlus, Noah Sewell, and Co. can be even 50% better at run defense than they were against Oregon State, Iowa State, or literally anyone else we played in 2020, than I think Oregon will be able to sustain even some early production from Rivers.

Fresno Hasn’t Allowed a Point All Year !!

The Fresno State defense served UConn a big ol’ goose egg on the scoreboard in Week Zero.

They gave up just 107 total yards, 1.8 yards per play, and limited UConn to just 2 of 16 on 3rd Down. At the same time, they only forced one single turnover in the form of a fumble recovery for a touchdown. You’d typically think that a blowout game like that would have had a turnover margin somewhere between +3 or +4, but they just seemed to play an even, unaggressive style of defense against a team that might be the worst program in the nation.

The Bulldogs aren’t exactly defensive ball hawks, so I think as long as the Oregon offense can avoid forcing their own turnovers, then I think the Ducks will certainly be able to score the first, second, third, and fiftieth points on this Bulldog D in 2021.

In terms of Oregon’s playcalling and offensive scheme, I’ve invented a convoluted, yet reasonable way to measure the Moorheadian philosophy between 2020 and 2021:

Let’s assume that we saw about 66% of the entirety of Joe Moorhead’s playbook last season (due to Covid and it being Moorhead’s first year, we probably only saw ~66% of all the possible plays that Moorhead has in his whole playbook).

And let’s also arbitrarily assume that we saw those 66% of all plays executed at about 66% of overall efficiency (of all the plays we ran, I’d unscientifically and generously estimate that about 66% of those plays were generally successful).

With that completely pretend stat set in place, I would hope that Saturday gives us a chance to see about the same 66% of the playbook—especially in not showing too much on film for Ohio State—but I’d look for the goal of the offense to bump things up to an 80%+ efficiency in order to make us feel a lot better about the entire offensive system in 2021.

I hope that was all just stupid enough to be smart.

TL;DR: We don’t need anything flashy on offense this week, we just need to look smarter, steadier, and sharper.

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I think AB and Ty Thompson (and hopefully even Ashford and Butterfield) will get plenty of snaps under center on Saturday. And even if the second team defense gives up a few points in garbage time, I think the Ducks will continue to score and make everyone excited about the offensive depth.

We’re gonna win this one going away, with 14 of Fresno’s points coming in the second half.

Oregon 44, Fresno State 24

Welcome back to new again, Duck fans.

Speaking of new, be on the lookout tomorrow morning for Ditch Rich’s brand new betting preview, Christian’s Picks, courtesy of friend-of-the-program, Christian Vitale. And I’ll also be sending you all a link to my appearance on the Quack 12 Podcast’s Quiz Show.

Lot’s of good stuff coming for Ditch Rich this Fall. Send this preview to your friends, drop your own game predictions in the comments, and remember to cheer very, very loudly.

Go Ducks.