Oregon Never Beats Boise
Alternate title: "Boise Isn't Even A State"
It’s Boise week, and all of the sudden a game that once felt “sneaky interesting,” now feels “very important to the vibes and fate of the whole damn season.”
This game actually reminds me a lot of 2022 v. BYU.
The Ducks had a disappointing opening performance (cough, Georgia) and our next real test was a Group of 5 powerhouse bringing their own hyped up offensive player (Jaren Hall, ha) to Eugene.
We ended up blowing them out, and that BYU team went on to be kind of bad, so it might seem like a forgettable game to us now, but I remember feeling full-blown anxiety heading into that one.
At that point, we still didn’t know what that team would achieve, how reliable our QB would be, or if our coaching staff could right the ship.
That’s pretty much how this week feels.
Boise is 1-0, favored to win the Mountain West, and might be the best G5 team in the country. They’ll be fighting hard for that 12th playoff spot no matter what happens tomorrow night (exclusively on Peacock).
They’re a great team, and more importantly: we never beat Boise.
In 2008, Masoli and former Kansas State WR, Chris Harper, both suffered injuries, forcing Darron Thomas to burn his redshirt and make his emergency debut in Autzen.
DT wasn’t quite ready to perform a miracle that day, and we lost by five points.
The following season, Chip lost his head coaching debut on the smurf turf, which was coincidentally the last time Oregon had a sluggish Week One performance against a team from the Potato State.*
*And never forget that John Canzano wanted LeGarrette Blount to be arrested for assault after that game.
I say go for it, John. I think we’d all love to finally get a sworn statement from Byron Hout on what was said right before the punch.
That game sucked, but we ended up winning the conference and playing in the Rose Bowl, so we turned things around.
And then there was the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl.
Mario was coaching his first game that day too, and lost to the Broncos despite two of the most insane back-to-back defensive plays I’ve ever seen in my football life.
But not even a fumbled Statue of Liberty the length of the field for a touchdown by Troy Dye, nor a 100+ yard Tyree Robinson pick six, could overcome the initial 24-0 Duck deficit.
That makes us 0-3.
I don’t think we can even call this a rivalry. They’re our daddy.
So how do the Ducks clean up last week’s messes and finally buck the Broncos?
Well, for starters, I’m happy to report that we’re all pretty sure this Boise defense is Bad™.
They gave up 461 yards in their opener against Georgia Southern, which leaves them ranked 116th in total defense.
BSU was bad against the pass, pretty bad against the run, and gave up 27 first downs and 45 points to team that was 6-7 last year.
We know better than anyone that you never want to judge a team from game one, but all signs point to tomorrow being a great opportunity for our offense to “get right.”
In my Idaho game review, I said that I wanted this Oregon team to be “unrecognizable” from last week, but that’s probably unfair and unrealistic.
I’d settle for 1) running more than two total RPO plays—yes, that’s how many we ran last week, despite the option being the cornerstone of a Will Stein offense—and 2) for Dillon to be free to run the ball, even just a few times.
DG has a liiiiittle bit of Baker Mayfield in him, and I want him to show it to me.
“I’m a Peacock, ya gotta let me fly on this one.” - Dillon Gabriel, probably
I said this on Monday, but it seemed like Dillon was scrambling exclusively to pass, and he might have even been given a direct order to NEVER run, lest he risk an injury.
And there’s a bit of history that shows us there could be some truth to that, seeing as how Bo ran 0 times for 0 yards against Portland State last season.
This may just be a case of: Dan has a philosophical objection to trying in FCS games—and he certainly has something against letting his QB run against them.
But Boise isn’t an FCS team, and we’re gonna need to start dipping into every dimension of this offensive attack moving forward.
I think that if we can do those two simple things—ramp up the RPO and let our QB fly—we wouldn’t even necessarily need the offensive line to improve that drastically from last week (but I pray to Bellotti that they will).
The option naturally eliminates a defensive lineman from the play, and if we give Dillon the chance to run and escape a broken pocket, he’ll turn would-be sacks and incompletions into positive yards.
So even if Matthew Bedford isn’t healthy, and even if the right side of the line still has stuff to figure out, we can scheme around those weaknesses and still find a ton of success on offense.
When it comes to defense, they can feel free to play the exact game they played last week.
I have it on very good authority* that Jeff Bassa—who played just ten snaps against Idaho—was only kept out as a precaution, and will be good to go tomorrow. And we’ll need him out there, seeing as how we might be facing the best running back in the country.
*Source: Trust me, bro.
Did I bury the lede here? Is it way too late in a Boise State preview article to finally mention the name Ashton Jeanty?
Well, you’ll hear Don Essig say it a lot over the P.A. system, so you better learn the dude’s name.
Jeanty was a 1,300+ yard rusher in 2023, and he returned to Boise despite hefty NIL offers from many P4 teams—including possibly one from Dan Lanning himself—and his Heisman campaign is in full effect.
He’s a hard-nosed runner with an NFL body type and he scored six (6!) TDs last weekend. He also currently leads the nation in rushing yards.
The dude wearing #2 in white tomorrow will be a huge challenge, but luckily it’ll be a good-on-good matchup against the Ducks supremely talented and productive defensive line.
Matayo might have racked up all the stats last week, but Jamaree Caldwell (6’1”, 340 lbs.) and Michigan State transfer Derrick Harmon (6’5”, 310 lbs.) were the big beef we’ve been missing in the middle of the defense. Those guys will be our most important Jeanty-stoppers.
We held Idaho to just 49 yards last week, and although this Boise offensive line and running back room will be a HUGE leap in talent, all signs point to Oregon’s run defense being supremely prepared—especially if Jestin Jacobs can re-join Bassa in the linebacking corps.
Jeanty could very well run for 100+ and two touchdowns, but if Oregon can stop him on just a handful of drives, and if they can make him the only bright spot on Boise’s offense, then they’ll get out of this one with a win.
As former Oregon great, Glen Powell would say, that’s the script:
Get the offensive line to play better somehow.
Give Will Stein his playbook back, let Dillon be Baker Mayfield, and take advantage of a Bad™ Boise defense.
Survive the Ashton Jeanty storm with our beefier, healthier front seven.
And—only if we’re feeling crazy—how about we cover the spread?
41 - 17, Oregon.
Go Ducks.
Busting out the LeGarrette Blount jersey and beating up my roommates tonight. Let’s go ducks!
This all reflects my thoughts to a T and is therefore a Good Article.