How Well Does Cal Run The Ball?: California Game Preview
Oregon enters bounce back mode as they take on the California Golden Bears in their second to last game of the regular season.
Mario Cristobal and the soul-searching Ducks take on a middling Cal team tomorrow in Berkeley—here’s what to expect.
When I told my cousin Andy that UO opened as -10 favorites this weekend in Vegas, his first question was one that I think many Duck fans have:
“How well does Cal run the football?”
It’s a fair question. Stanford, Wazzu, UCLA, OSU, and OSU (worth two mentions) all ran roughshod over the Oregon defense, and exposed a weakness that sends dread straight to my gut whenever we line up.
As these last few weeks play out, any team that beats Oregon will do it with a strong showing on the ground, and if Oregon manages to win, they will have done it by shoring up their greatest weakness. It’s the key to everything, really. No pressure.
So—to answer Andy’s question—how does the Cal rushing attack stack up?
In terms of productivity, the Golden Bears have averaged 4.1 yards per attempt, and rushed for just about 140 yards per game. Both of those are under Oregon’s opponent averages, which are at 5.4 ypc/208.3 ypg (ouch).
Oregon is going to have to get off the field, stopping Chase Garbers and RB Christopher Brown (questionable for Saturday) from moving the sticks. Cal achieves about 34% of their first downs by rushing the football, which is well under the 40% rate that the Ducks have allowed to this point.
Some folks say that football is ultimately won on the scoreboard. The G-Bears only have two rushing touchdowns on the year—which is a refreshing number to see since the Ducks have given up 2.5 scores on the ground per game.
So, Cal’s rushing attack comes into Saturday under almost every consequential measure that the Ducks have allowed so far. And that’s saying something, since the Ducks’ run defense is ranked DEAD LAST in the conference.
But looking closer at the conference rankings, it’s interesting to wonder if Cal is only so far down in so many categories—namely looking at yards per attempt—because they just haven’t faced Oregon yet?
Three out of Oregon’s first four opponents are among the top five in yards per attempt in the Pac with: Wazzu (second), OSU (fourth), and UCLA (fifth). Stanford is down at ninth, and Cal is right behind them in tenth.
Which brings us to a little conspiracy theory minute:
Is Oregon struggling against the run because they keep facing such great running teams?
Let’s Snopes that thought:
In the case of Oregon State and UCLA, I would say yes. Oregon has faced some stout runners. But they also faced a Borghi-less Coug team. ‘Ferd put up 6.4 ypc against the Ducks, but have just averaged 4.1 on the year—and that number plummets to a measly 2.8 ypc if you subtract the Oregon game altogether.
Conspiracy officially debunked.
The Ducks have a tough time getting off their blocks along the line, and when they do, they have a nearly team-wide epidemic of poor tackling. That kind of stuff is only really improved with more live-ball practice and play. It’s about embracing and inviting contact. It’s a Casey Matthews-like hunger to attack the ball.
I don’t think it’s realistic to expect anything close to a “night and day” improvement in the run D tomorrow, but at least Cal presents themselves as a team that could give Oregon more opportunities to gain confidence, play after play.
The Ducks will need to compound every little success on top of the last if the Pac-12 title is still a realistic goal for them, and I think it should be.
For all of the frustration in DuckWorld this week, Oregon still happens to boast the best overall offense in the Pac-12.
RoboShough & Co. average 491.8 total yards per game, while Cal’s defense ranks fifth in yards allowed (366.7).
I’ve noted this before, but everyone who has ever slanged slander in Tyler Shough’s direction has always ended up regretting it when all is said and done. I think I leveled fair criticism towards his Beav performance, but you’ll notice I never once entertained the idea that his starting job was up for discussion.
Because it isn’t.
He’s young. He just lost his first game. He deserves a chance to face that demon head on, and I have a good feeling that he’s up to that challenge.
I said it in my OSU post-mortem, but this Cal game is where Cristobal & Co. really see what kind of team they have. How do they bounce back? How do they refocus on everything that can still be accomplished this season?
All of that energy goes towards Justin Wilcox, and going 1-0 this week.
38-21, Oregon.
Go Ducks.