Ditch Rich's 2021 Pac-12 Predictions
In which I try to be as critical about Oregon as humanly possible, and try to find some sense within this classically chaotic conference.
I used this fancy website, Pac-12 Playoff Predictor, to go game-by-game, week-by-week, for each Pac-12 team, and I have scientifically determined a final standing/Championship matchup for the conference that I believe is plausible—nay, probable.
Of course, I tried my BEST to remain impartial, but I am still a Duck fan. I still have faith and confidence that a third straight conference title is well within reach for the Men of Oregon, but I also have good feelings about what Oregon State, Cal, and even Washington can do, too.
I’ve broken each team down by standing and given my detailed rationale for all the reasons I picked everything I picked.
Allow me to explain:
North
Oregon, 9-3 (7-2)
I won’t spend too much time on Oregon because I will certainly talk about them enough in the coming weeks, but 9-3 is basically as “doomsday” as I can get.
Let’s say that we lose to Ohio State (easiest loss to put on the board), Cal (the one you probably “shouldn’t” drop), and then UCLA in the regular season (because Chip is seriously due to get one over on us, but more on that later).
Then, we go on to beat UDub, Utah, and Oregon State, giving Oregon a respectable nine wins and the Pac-12 North. Sweet. That’s the goal. And then—Chip-willing—we’ll end up beating UCLA in a revenge game for a third-straight conference title.
Once we cruise through Fresno State, I’m sure I’ll be predicting a 13-0 Playoff season, but this is me trying to calm my expectations in the face of an absolutely blank slate.
Washington, 9-3 (6-3)
I think the Huskies will get a chance to make the conference look good by beating a big program like Michigan at the Big House (been there, done that), and they’ll win a lot more football games too. But I see them losing to Cal (as is tradition), Oregon State (the Beavs are due to win this one), and then of course to our Oregon Ducks.
They’ll beat ASU, squeak one past UCLA , and overall they’ll finish with a respectable nine-win campaign. If Oregon can look “playoff-good” with ten wins and the conference title, the Huskies could even have an outside chance at a NY6 berth—as long as UCLA looks bad enough in the title game.
Cal, 8-4 (5-4)
Every year is “Cal’s year” nowadays, and I think they’ll have some impressive wins, but I just don’t think they’ll be truly challenging for the North. It’s Oregon, UDub, and everyone else.
And with that said, I can even see them getting two signature wins over the Huskies and the Ducks. But Cal will inevitably do the thing that up-and-coming Pac-12 teams always do, and they’ll 1) drop a game they shouldn’t to Wazzu or Oregon State, and 2) most likely come up short against my dark horse, UCLA, and then 3) lose another one to Stanford and/or USC.
The G-Bears are just not quite there yet—and might not ever get there before Nebraska or USC comes offering Justin Wilcox a bag and a half to jump ship.
Oregon State, 7-5 (4-5)
People don’t buy into them. People never buy into them. The Pac-12 Media picked them to end up fifth in the North, but I think their culture upswing and transfer portal success has written “bowl-bound” all over the Beavis.
They have their most winnable P5 non-conference game in centuries with the Purdue opener, and then they’re due to get the better of the Huskies, too. I think they’ll hold off the bottom of the barrel of the Pac and find their way to six or seven whole ass wins.
Maybe they can even sneak one pass SC? A Giant Killer can dream.
Welcome back to December football, Beavs. Bowl season isn’t the same without your classic 3-0 Sun Bowl victories.
Wazzu, 6-6 (3-6)
Six wins is probably a bit high for this embattled program, but I mostly just have a belief that they’ll finish higher than Stanford—no matter what kind of “personal freedom” they might be distracted by.
Maybe that means that the Cougs win one game and the Trees win zero? But either way, I’m not high on the ‘Ferd, so thus, I am just a bit higher on The Palousers.
Stanford, 5-7 (3-6)
Their past two seasons of recruiting (and more importantly, their player retention) hasn’t been down this bad for this long in the modern era of Stanford football. David Shaw is a good coach, and he seems to have slowly started to turn things around with the second-best class in the conference coming in next season, but I think this is the year the Cardinal hit rock bottom.
They have the hardest strength of schedule in the whole conference. They play all the top four teams in the South; their non-conference includes Kansas State, Notre Dame, and the less-than-challenging-but-still-SEC Vanderbilt; and then they obviously have to take on Oregon, UDub, and the always scrappy Cal and Oregon State teams, too.
The Tree ended 2020 by winning their last couple games, but I still don’t think the talent pool or current team culture can overcome itself by having anything close to a successful 2021.
South
UCLA, 9-3 (6-3)
Okay, hear me out. Do you remember how close the UCLA/Oregon game was last season? And how well the Bruins ran on us and the rest of the Pac all year? That was an offense that was given so little time to understand and learn a Chip Kelly-scheme, yet still found a way to give everyone headaches.
They smacked Cal and Arizona, beat a talented (albeit, Covid-challenged) ASU team, and scored 35+ in four shootout losses to Oregon, USC, Stanford, and CU.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that 2020 UCLA was the best 3-4 team of all time.
Nobody else sees it, but Chip has this roster ready to do some real damage. He is figuring every conference defense out, while everyone else has been happy to simply survive playing against them as if they were Army or Air Force.
Chip is on the verge of a very scary renaissance, and he’s going to use his long-dreamed triple-option/spread attack with Power 5 caliber players to confuse the hell out of the conference, get some big wins (including one against LSU in Pasadena), and just be a general nightmare once again.
I think they’re winning the whole damn South.
Arizona State, 8-4 (5-4)
I don’t think they’re gonna be THAT good, but I can at least tell you that I’m glad Oregon is avoiding Jayden Daniels this year.
They avoid Oregon and Cal, and have a very favorable non-conference schedule.
2021 will be a big year for Herm to win a bunch and hopefully use that success as his case for keeping his job once the new NCAA recruiting sanctions come through next summer. I think they’ll be better than USC and Utah, but I don’t know how long that winning can last with a program that seems to have rushed their shuttle into outer space, never considering how they were going to land the damn thing.
Utah, 8-4 (5-4)
Charlie Brewer interests me, but he’s going to be a competent game manager, at most.
Utah ends up in the middle of the pack for me because I think 2nd-4th place in the South might just cannibalize themselves, while UCLA beats two and/or three of them, putting the Bruins above everyone else in the division.
Kyle Whittingham is a totally okay enough coach. He shouldn’t have been named 2019 Coach of the Year, but you can chalk that one up to the expert level of pettiness of Pac-12 coaches, and their general contempt with how Mario Cristobal has redefined competition for everyone else.
But when it comes to specific position groups or team analysis, I’d put at least seven other Pac-12 QBs over Brewer, and when it comes to, “best offensive lines in the South,” I’d take ASU or UCLA every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
USC, 8-4 (6-3)*
Oh man. Yeah, I really do think the Trojans are down here.
In my defense, I still have them winning eight games on the year, but I just think they’ll lose to Utah or ASU, and then lose to UCLA, and I bet they’ll lose to Oregon State, just for funsies.
I think Kedon Slovis is obviously talented (despite his faulty internal rush clock), and we’d all benefit if Clay Helton could win the South again and keep his job for another year, but I think UCLA is going to bypass them in 2021 when it comes to Los Angeles supremacy.
I think I also have USC losing to Notre Dame, but I really have no clue what they’re going to be like—so maybe the Trojans even end up with nine wins—but that outcome doesn’t change the South standings anyway, so I’ll take a coin flip on that one.
*In-division record is worse than Utah, UCLA, and ASU.
Colorado, 3-9 (2-7)
Apparently even making it to three total wins is a controversial projection for the 2021 Buffs. They have the second hardest slate in the conference, playing Texas A&M and Minnesota back-to-back, and then drawing both Oregon and UDub from the North.
They lost they’re starting QB, Sam Noyer, to Oregon State, and now they have to throw some poor unfortunate soul right into the deep end and say a prayer.
Arizona, 3-9 (2-7)
Maybe it’s honestly a toss-up between U of A and CU on who is at the bottom of the South, but the Wildcats have five conference games on the road, and also play Washington, at Oregon, at USC, and at Arizona State in the Territorial Cup.
Jedd Fisch may have some good things cooking in a couple years, but I don’t have high hopes for his first season at the helm.
The only thing that makes me cautious about these predictions is three things:
1) I’m apparently predicting 8-9 bowl-eligible teams from the Pac-12, and that seems HIGH.
2) Am I too bullish on UCLA, and to a lesser extent Oregon State and Cal? Maybe, but I feel good about at least two of those three finishing in the top half of their respective divisions.
And 3) I literally have Oregon losing to Cal and UCLA (and Ohio State) and I still feel paranoid that I might be over-confident? Who knows. I’ll pencil us into the Natty after Week One anyway.
Go Ducks.