Rose Bowl Redemption

Can the Ducks correct all of their mistakes from the last Ohio game?

Some people might refer to Oregon’s October 12th victory over Ohio as the “best win in the history of Autzen Stadium.”

Others (me) might just as easily call it, “The Missed Opportunity Game.”

We all remember Buckeye fans plugging their ears and Duck fans storming the field, but not many of us seem to remember just how many mistakes and mishaps we survived to get there.

Dan Lanning missed an opportunity to call a timeout and demand a review of an obviously-intercepted pass by Jeff Bassa. If he had done that, it would’ve taken Ohio’s opening “touchdown” off the board.

Traeshon Holden got kicked out at the start of the second quarter for spitting on an opposing player when Oregon was set up with 1st & Goal. We missed out on four points when we settled for a field goal there, and we lost Holden for the rest of the game.

We dropped the snap on our first extra point attempt. That’s another point right there.

We missed a normal field goal. Three points.

And Dillon somehow didn’t see a wide open Tez Johnson on 4th & Goal at the one-yard line. Seven more points.

In the most radical of scenarios, the Ducks whiffed on a 21-point swing against Ohio’s $20 million roster and they STILL managed to escape with their biggest regular season victory ever.

And even though I’ve just listed half a dozen ways in which Oregon beat themselves and still won, Buckeye QB Will Howard (#18) has done his own research and wants you to know that he actually doesn’t think anyone has beat them this year.

I look forward to watching Mr. Howard’s mental gymnastics routine during the 2028 Olympic Games, but this answer doesn’t exactly scream, “championship mentality,” to me.

But let’s leave the past behind us. What about the Rose Bowl rematch?

Both teams might be playing even better football than they were in the first game—especially on offense.

The Buckeyes just got done with an angry 42-17 whomping of Tennessee in the first round, and it seems like they’ve finally realized that their offense should be centered around trying to get the football to their All-American wide receiver, Jeremiah Smith (#4), as many times as possible.

And on the other side, Ohio’s defense hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown since we played them two and a half months ago.

Sure, their secondary might be playing a bit better in the last few weeks, but if you take a closer look you’ll see that those numbers are greatly inflated by the piss-poor competition they’ve faced.

You see, they’ve only played two teams all season that have averaged over 250+ passing yards per game: Oregon and Indiana.

And if that stat doesn’t convince you that they’re teetering on fraudulent, you might point to their most recent performance and say: “But James! They just totally shut down Tennessee and their electric quarterback, Nico Iamaleava! Their pass defense must be elite!”

But then I’d respond by telling you something that SECSPN doesn’t want you to know: That Nico Iamaleava—AKA The August Heisman—isn’t as good this year as you’ve been told he is, and that he only threw for 300+ yards one time in Week One against Chattanooga.

So when it comes to the theory that the OSU secondary has suddenly “figured it all out,” I am once again asking you to trust that the most-experienced and most-reliable quarterback in college football will carve them up all over again.

Dillon Gabriel threw for 341 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions the last time he faced this vaunted Buckeye defense, and he’s been playing even better ever since.

The face of guy who’s ready to beat the Buckeyes again. (Photo c/o B1G on Twitter)

But I think the biggest separation between these two teams compared to October 12th will be how different they’ll look in the trenches.

Both team’s offensive lines have faced a few injuries, but Ohio will be missing two vital full-time starters at center and left tackle (the two most important positions on the o-line).

And Oregon will likely have Marcus Harper back at 100%, but with Ohio’s increased blitz tendencies, I’d still expect both re-shuffled offensive lines to give up more than their previous combined five tackles for loss.

Oregon was also without their star edge rusher, Jordan Burch, the last time they faced OSU.

Burch has 8.5 sacks in just 9 games, and his mighty presence against the Bucks’ depleted o-line is going to be a game-changer for the Duck pass rush. If Oregon can pressure, hit, and force Will Howard to make even more bad decisions, they’ll be in great shape.

I think all of those changes up front create a literally massive advantage for the Ducks when it comes to the physical nature of playoff football.

As for the UO defense overall, some folks might be alarmed by the fact that we gave up 37 points to State Penn a few weeks ago, but allow me assuage those fears with two counterpoints:

1. I have it on good authority (my comment section) that most of Oregon’s defense actually had the flu during the Big Ten Championship game. There’s been a bug going around!

2. Penn State had a unique offensive approach where one of seven different players could’ve received the snap on any given play. That kind on uncertainty clearly led to confusion for the Ducks, but I don’t expect that Chip Kelly will be able to cook up anything nearly as befuddling for this game.

There’s no doubt that Ohio has tons of offensive weapons—and there’s pretty much no doubt that they’re going to make a handful of possibly back-breaking plays against our good-not-elite defense—but we’ve proven that we have the horses to keep up with them.

And with the additions of Burch, and a full-game from Holden (assuming he spits in all the right places this time around), Oregon will be fielding its healthiest and most-available team of the season.

Put simply: We have Dillon Gabriel and a ton of fresh, newly healthy guys, and Ohio does not.

That’s pretty much the extent of the nitty-gritty breakdown I wanted to do here, because I’d rather finish by zooming out and looking at the Grandaddy-sized picture of this game.

Much has been said about Oregon’s playoff seeding.

Their reward for a 13-0 season was a much-needed first round bye, but also a quarterfinal matchup with the second best team in the country.

So, what would it mean if Oregon were to lose in the Rose Bowl?

I would hate to say that the whole season would be a wash, but it would certainly feel like the emptiest of all our Rose Bowl losses.

What would it mean for Oregon to win this huge game, but then lose later on and ultimately fall short of the National Championship once again?

Again, winning this one would be pretty sweet, but we’re currently in the middle of some once-in-a-lifetime parity in college football, and it feels like a rare opportunity to reach out and grab that first ring.

And should we even bother ourselves with negative thoughts about hypothetical losses?

Probably not. Oregon’s the best team in the country and they’ve proven it multiple times this year.

But can you blame me?

I’ve been a Duck fan my whole life and Almost Winning It All™ is practically like breathing to me at this point.

I’ve had a lot of time to mull over these questions in the run-up to this game, and if this were a basic, copy-paste Ditch Rich article, I’d typically end with something sappy and romantic about, “just wanting to soak in the purplepink Pasadena sunset reflected in Oregon’s chrome helmets.”

But Dan Lanning has successfully altered my brain chemistry—at least for now—to the point where I am starting to seriously expect success and can no longer force myself to think like a 2010s Duck fan.

This outlook will likely bite me in the ass, but I think I’m actually starting to understand that 1) Oregon is very good at football, 2) they are better at football than every other team, and 3) they have what it takes to win it all.

I won’t go as far to say we’ll win by 22 points like we should’ve on October 12th, but I think we’ll increase that margin for sure.

45-34.

Go Ducks.

---

Thanks for reading! Drop your score predictions in the comment section below and pass this preview on to your favorite Duck fan.