Something is Rotten on The Farm: Stanford Game Preview
The Ducks open 2020-21 against a Stanford team that hasn't looked this barren since before the days of Tavita Pritchard.
Folks, it’s finally here. We faced adversity, we wore our masks (ideally), and maybe we even started coping with the loss of the season. But just like Justin Herbert’s Oregon career, we overcame a rough start, and now it’s time to reap the rewards. Duck football is back.
This Saturday, ABC’s primetime team is going to be in Eugene to watch the Ducks start the much anticipated season against the mysterious Stanford Cardinal.
Earlier in the year (pre-covid) it felt like Stanford was the epicenter of a zillion stories of de-commitments, and one transfer after another. What is going on with David Shaw’s program? Has he lost his edge? Have the final fumes of the post-Harbaugh/Luck *glow* just completely faded away?
Stanford, as a program, isn’t like USC or UCLA. Their academic status brings a lofty standard which makes recruiting difficult from the get-go, but especially if you aren’t consistently competing for Rose Bowls and conference titles. Yes, they won a conference title in 2015. And yes, they won the North in 2017. But with their on-field struggles, and the recent degradation of their roster/recruiting pipeline, the Cardinal are at a serious crossroads as a program. If they aren’t trending upwards, things ain’t goin’ good.
All of that to say that David Shaw will be leading this shell of a former Stanford team against the Pac-12-favorite Ducks to kick off the season. I’m sure an opener like that will keep his seat from heating up.
Stanford will be without quarterback KJ Costello, who grad transferred to Mississippi State just so he could beat LSU and do absolutely nothing else. With Costello gone, ‘Ferd will be rolling with senior Davis Mills under center. Mills actually started against the Ducks last year, but he and the rest of the Stanford offense didn’t manage to score even one touchdown on Avalos & Co. down on the farm.
I think it’s unproblematic to say that Oregon’s defense—especially the front seven—will reload and then some this season. KT, Jordon Scott, and Austin Faoliu will look to make the push up front, and they’ll clear the way for the lethal stable of linebackers (Slade-Matautia, Flowe, Funa, Sewell, etc.) to get into the backfield.
Even if Stanford’s notoriously large offensive line can manage to successfully double team KT once in a while, they’ll be leaving themselves exposed to every other potential all-conference player Avalos has in his two-deep roster. Whether it’s pass rushing or run stopping, all aspects of the defensive trench look to be even better than they were in 2019.
When it comes to names you might hear a lot on Saturday, I think we’ll see a bigger breakout in Popo Aumavae. The junior defensive tackle got better game after game last year, and with tons of opponents focusing their prep and game plans on KT and Scott, Popo could end up among the top 2 or 3 on the team in tackles for loss by the end of the season.
Whenever Mills does find enough time to throw the ball, he might think he’s excited to not be throwing towards Jevon Holland or Thomas Graham Jr., but Verone McKinley III, Nick Pickett, and Dede “Two-Pick” Lenoir will be a quick cold shower to any eagerness he might have.
Just like the Ducks, the already transfer-heavy Cardinal had a few key opt-outs while the Pac-12 sat in COVID-limbo over the summer. NFL targets like offensive lineman Walker Little, and star cornerback Paulson Adebo, both joined the Penei/Jevon/TG4s of the college football world in focusing their efforts on NFL Combine and Draft preparation.
I hope they all stay healthy, and I hope they all get their money. They deserve it.
Offensively for the Ducks, Tyler Shough should be able to treat the Adebo-less Stanford secondary like a pseudo-North Dakota State and solidify routes and timing with ease by utilizing the deepest Oregon receiving corps in decades.
Sidebar:
A lot of noise has been made lately about Cristobal’s non-announcement of Tyler Shough as QB1. As of Monday afternoon the official organizational chart listed Shough and Anthony Brown as co-starters (basically that just means Stanford gets to waste an hour or two in prep watching Brown’s Boston College game film). And hey, I love a great quarterback battle as much as the next guy, but I think it’s safe to function off of what Mario said back in the Spring, and that was that the job is Shough’s until it isn’t.
If Anthony Brown ends up out on the field at any point in the year, I’d imagine that it’s because Mario and Moorhead believe he earned the job, and I’ll be excited to watch him cook. But until then, Tyler is still the heir apparent, and I don’t think it’s unwise to preview the game with the expectation that he’ll be the one out there on Saturday.
RoboShough’s first and most reliable target in 2020 will be almost certainly be his fellow Arizonan—and senior captain—Johnny Johnson III. However, his first career start will be best-defined by how he builds connections with all the other receivers.
If Tyler is anything like his predecessor, he’ll love finding a tight end down the seam. Cam McCormick and Spencer Webb have missed a few practices in the last week or so due to injury, so perhaps it’s time for Kampmoyer to show off his hands? I’d obviously love to see young Pat Herbert out there but it seems like he’s still down the depth chart for some reason.
Other standouts include the freshman Kris Hutson; the return of the always-electric Jaylon Redd; and the former Never-Beaver, Devon Williams. Add in a healthy Mycah Pittman and the possibilities are endless as to how Shough and Moorhead can open up the passing game to kick off the season.
Along with Stanford’s recruiting woes, they also have a new favorite habit of producing poor tacklers. In 2019, the Cardinal rank 7th in the Pac-12 in rushing yards allowed per game, 8th in avg. yards per attempt, and 11th in forced fumbles. They used to be the, “physical team of the conference,” they were the “Wooly Mammoths.” But Mario and the Ducks have taken that title for themselves, and Shaw’s once-formidable defense is now middling at best.
As Utah knows all too well, bad tackling and an ineffective run defense means that CJ Verdell could very easily run over, bounce off of, and freewheel past the Cardinal to the tune of 200-something easy yardaroos.
One bright spot for the Cardinal—and probably the area where they most closely compete with the 14th*-ranked Ducks—is that their kicker, Jet Toner, told the NFL to stand back and stand by while he tries to claim a spot among the conference’s best boots.
While he will undoubtedly fall short of Cam Lewis’ imminent Lou Groza season**, Toner has a pretty sweet name, and I wouldn’t be a reliable source for an Oregon/Stanford preview if I didn’t at least give him that.
Special teams is admittedly a delicate subject in Eugene, but if and when Moorhead/Shough run into some growing pains and don’t manage to find the endzone on some early drives, there’s no doubt in my mind that Lewis will be there to pick up the slack and cash in some points.
*I have no clue what rankings mean at this point of a weird year like 2020, and I promise that I won’t have a serious opinion on it until Dec. 19th. Ducks should just focus on the easy stuff, like winning seven games in a row.
**In case my Twitter isn’t clear on the subject, consider this my flag-in-the-ground as the national Cam Lewis defender. If we don’t beat Wazzu last year, the season falls apart. He was perfect in the Pac-12 Title Game. When DuckWorld needed him most, the freshman showed up. So, if anyone—Duck fans in particular—wants to come at Cam The King, they best not miss.
ALSO, in case any of you watched the Minnesota/Maryland game last Friday night, you saw the Golden Gopher’s kicker miss an extra point to lose the game in OT. Fun fact: Camden Lewis decommited from Minnesota and chose to become a Duck instead. So, if my math is right, that’s essentially a net +2 game-winning boots for the boy wonder.
Final score prediction—which is random anyway because everything is still really a mystery:
44-17, Ducks.
Yes, there are absolutely three Camden Lewis field goals in there.
Go Ducks.
Ertz was out. Liked the political refs. Go Big Green!
Stanford will try to shorten the game, so I'm not sure Oregon will get to 44 points - unless it creates at least a couple of turnovers. I'll say Oregon 34, Stanford 20. Go Ducks!