Run THE Damn Ball: Ohio State Game Preview
Yeah, it's the biggest game of the Mario Cristobal era.
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I don’t have to tell you that tomorrow’s game at Ohio State is important. You already know it’s important.
The Ducks are ranked 12th in the country, and the long-hated Buckeyes are #3.
This game has been on the books since 2012, but the hatred goes all the way back to Jack Crabtree’s 1927 Ducks. And then it was reaffirmed a little later on when Oregon lost to Terrelle Pryor in the 2010 Rose Bowl. And then again in the 2014 National Title game.
It’s safe to say that the Ducks would like to have this one. And it’s also safe to say that it ain’t gonna be easy.
Let’s start with the defense.
Justin Flowe had 14 tackles against Fresno State. His status for Saturday is unknown.
Kayvon Thibodeaux is Kayvon Thibodeaux. His status for Saturday is unknown, too.
I went on a deep (read: futile) journey to try and learn about both of those injuries, but I don’t think we’re going to have any firm answers from Ghost Protocol Cristobal until kickoff at 9 AM pst tomorrow morning.
So let’s talk about the guys we are almost positive are going to play.
Ohio State’s offensive line was the only group in the Big Ten to not allow a single QB hit in Week One, but Oregon’s front seven was a bright spot against Fresno. They sacked Jake Haener four times (one of them being KT’s strip sack) and gave up a mere 75 yards on the ground (45 of which came on one single run).
Ohio State rushed for 201 yds in their opener against Minnesota, and 125 of those came from freshman RB #28 Miyan Williams. Williams had a great debut, but #33 Master Teague also showed greatness last season, and he’s going to be a threat, too. tOSU’s offensive line is better than Fresno State’s, but I’m not sure that Williams and/or Teague are much better RBs than the Bulldog’s Mims and Rivers.
There were Ducks all along the front seven that were recognized with fantastic Week One defensive grades from Pro Football Focus. Brandon Dorlus was named to PFF’s Team of the Week with an interior defender grade of 91.8, and a pass-rush specific grade of 92.3. By the expert’s count, Dorlus won a whopping 32.5% of his 40 pass-rush reps.
King Popo was the third-highest rated interior lineman in the conference, graded at 84.6, and big Noah Sewell was the single highest graded run stopper (93.1) in the country—that’s among all players, at all positions.
So, with or without KT, and with or without Justin Flowe, the challenge for this front seven remains the same: Keep getting after the quarterback, and keep plugging up those running holes.
I mentioned it in my Fresno review, but Oregon’s secondary definitely needs to step up. Their primary challenge will be trying to “keep the top on” the two best receivers in the country, #2 Chris Olave and #5 Garrett Wilson.
I’ll start with the bad news for those of you who aren't fans of the zone defense and 7-10 yard cushions—you’re gonna see some more of that tomorrow.
As the highlight reel above will show, Olave and Wilson are insane deep threats, and Mykael Wright literally can’t guard both of them at the same time. The the initial gameplan for every member of the Oregon secondary will surely be to keep these world-talent receivers in front of them—as best they can.
But I also have good news for those of you who aren't fans of the zone defense and 7-10 yard cushions—we will see it at least a little less than we did last week.
The prevalance of zone coverage last week was probably due to a combination of: 1) having the young Bridges and Manning in their first college action, as well as 2) basically giving the whole defense a trial run of what we plan to run against an offense that is at least a zillion times more explosive than Fresno State.
Mario Cristobal even mentioned this week that Bridges and Manning actually missed a few signals from the sidelines in the first half of Week One that caused them to play a zone or generally softer in situations where they were supposed to be in man coverage. He said that those issues were fixed in the second half—so at least we can attribute a handful of the weaker coverage calls to that?
Jamal Hill and DJ James are back (“available”), and players knowing the playcall is back, too. That’s a recipe for success if you ask me.
On top of all that, it was great to see how much Mykael, Sewell, Flowe*, and Verone love to tackle in the open field now. Also, it seems like the whole team loves to strip the ball, and Oregon will have to dominate the turnover margin if they want to put themselves in a position to win in the ‘Shoe.
And now for the offense.
The Ohio State defense struggled early against Minnesota’s rushing attack last week. It took the Gophers losing their RB1 to injury in order for the Buckeyes to tighten up and start making stops on the ground.
We know that Oregon is a run-first team, so we’re going to have see them prove the hell out of that fact tomorrow.
You wanna run the damn ball, Mario? Let’s run the damn ball.
This program has been built to revolve around the offensive line, so we are going to need to see them take a massive step up from how they played last week in order to live up to the physicality that a run-first team needs.
Oregon ran the ball 49 times last week, and threw the ball 24 times. I’m okay with that kind of imbalance! But I think it only works if you use your personnel wisely.
I love Travis Dye, but he works best when he’s the curveball. He’s the slippery X-factor with cannonball speed and who loves himself a good wheel route.
CJ Verdell should be the primary back, from start to finish, with Anthony Brown probably getting the second most carries. If the CJ/Dye/AB carry break down was 40/25/35 last Saturday, then it needs to be 70/12/18 tomorrow.
In the passing game, we’ll have to utilize run-pass-options more effectively than we ever have before in the Moorhead era—while prioritizing protecting the football. JoMo’s routes could afford to get more creative, the dropped passes obviously have to stop, and AB’s accuracy has to be dialed up, too.
1) Win the turnover battle.
2) Don’t let their offense beat you deep.
3) Run the ball like it’s going out of style.
That’s the plan.
Do all of that, and Oregon will put themselves in a position to win. The rest will come down to the smartest in-game decision-making of Mario Cristobal’s career, and a handful of gutsy performances by some key Ducks.
Ted Lasso says, “it’s the hope that kills ya.”
But he also says that with a goofy smile on his face, so call me crazy, but I’m gonna lean all the way into my purest forms of Hope™ in this one.
Oregon - 27, Ohio State - 24
Go Ducks.